|
Published in the April 10, 2009 issue of the Hardwood Review Weekly
Visit the Hardwood Review website at www.hardwoodreview.com |
||
|
A Balance That is Second to None The Superb Productivity and Sustainability of North American Forests |
||
|
North American forests are among the world’s most sustainable and contribute more to global GDP than any other forests, according to “State of the Forests 2009,” a biannual report released on March 16 by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Following is a summary of the report’s findings on forest volumes and primary wood production levels for each region, beginning with North America. North America Situation Report North America contains 17% of global forest area and 18% of global growing stock, and produces, consumes and exports more wood products than any other region in the world. Forest area increased more than 17,000 square miles in the U.S., fell more than 18,000 square miles in Mexico, and was unchanged in Canada between 1990 and 2005. The U.S. gain was second only to China, which established large plantations and implemented harvesting moratoriums. Most Mexican losses were due to increased agricultural activity. North America ranks first in several forest health and forest sector output measures. Forestry sector GDP totaled a world-leading US$147.5 billion in 2006 and lumber output led the world. (Note: All references to forestry sector GDP contribution in this article comprise the sum of logs, [primary] wood, pulp and paper production.) Outlook North American wood products demand will probably increase at a slower rate than growing stocks, so there should be minimal strain on forest resources during the next decade. Forest area in the U.S. and Canada is expected to remain stable, and the FAO predicts that urbanization will slow the deforestation rate in Mexico. The U.S. and Canada may use more wood for energy production if cellulose-based biofuels become commercially viable. We expect demand for North American lumber to remain at a relatively low level for at least the next two years. Africa Situation Report Africa lost almost 247,000 square miles of forestland between 1990 and 2005. The vast majority was converted to agricultural use, and some became desert. The rate of deforestation did slow slightly in the earlier half of this decade relative to the 1990s. Poor governance, weak legal systems, uncertain land ownership and poor infrastructure have hurt foreign investment in Africa’s value-added forest industries. The forestry sector contributed just US$14 billion to GDP in 2006. Africa produced just 1% of wood-based panels, 2% of pulp and 2% of lumber. Outlook Growing demand for food will drive additional conversions of forestland to farmland; mining and energy exploration projects will supersede investments in forestry; and implementation of sustainable forestry practices will be slow. “The forest situation in Africa presents enormous challenges, reflecting the larger constraints of low income, weak policies and inadequately developed institutions,” the FAO concluded. African lumber production may decrease in the next decade, which could cause scarcities and higher prices. Asia and the Pacific Situation Report This region is home to more than 60% of the world’s population and two of its fastest growing economies—China and India. Forest coverage, at 19.7%, is the lowest of any region. Unsustainable harvesting levels, illegal logging and natural disasters caused nearly 48,000 square miles of deforestation in the 1990s. Reforestation, wider use of sustainable practices, crackdowns on illegal logging and plantation growth—particularly in China—helped the region regain more than 12,000 square miles between 2000 and 2005. The Asia/Pacific region contains less than 13% of global growing stock, yet its forest sector contributed US$124 billion to GDP in 2006. While three-quarters of logs are consumed locally as fuel, value-added processing activity is significant. 40%, 24%, 34% and 18%, respectively, of the world’s wood-based panels, pulp, paper and lumber are produced here. Outlook During the next decade, industrialization and massive population growth will dramatically increase natural resource use, bolster individual income and stimulate demand for food, fuel and fiber. This will present “enormous land-use challenges” and “exert tremendous pressure on the naturalresource-rich countries in and outside the region,” the FAO noted. Asia will lose forestland to biofuel crops, and more fiber will be derived from forest plantations. Unless wood products manufacturing shifts to another part of the world, most wood fiber produced in Asia will stay there, and Asia will remain a significant net importer of logs and lumber. Commonwealth of Independent States Situation Report The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) consists of Belarus, Moldova, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The forested percentage of CIS land area has been steady at 48% since 1990, yet it accounted for a mere 2% of the world forestry sector’s GDP in 2006. This is because harvests and value-added activities are relatively low in Russia, home to more than 95% of the region’s forestland and growing stock. The high risk associated with Russian investment has kept capital scarce for forest industry development, so forest resources are plentiful but underutilized relative to other countries. Russia produces just 5.4% of the world’s logs and exports a large percentage of them to China. Outlook “[Russia] has immense potential to regain its position as a major global producer of wood products,” said the FAO report. In our view, however, constantly changing trade policies, low investor confidence, and corruption at the local and central government levels will keep Russia’s forest industry from reaching its full potential. Russia will maintain its place as a provider of logs to China, but secondary wood processing and exportation won’t grow much. Europe Situation Report Europe contains 4.4% of the world’s forestlands, but generates nearly 30% of forestry sector GDP. Production of lumber, wood-based panels, pulp, paper and lumber comprised 26%, 23%, 29% and 28% of world totals, respectively, in 2006. The European Union has adopted policies aimed at increasing consumption of renewable energy, driving up demand for domestic and imported biofuel. Outlook Western European markets are mature, consumers care deeply about environmental protection and population growth is negative, so forests will keep growing. High labor rates and regulations will limit labor-intensive forestry activities in Western Europe, but production of high-tech “green” products should increase. Eastern European demand for wood products could grow as incomes rise. Harvests in countries like Poland and Romania are well below pre-1990 levels and could increase. North American exporters will probably face less competition from lumber producers in Western European and more competition from those in Eastern Europe. Latin America/Caribbean Situation Report Latin America—including South America, Central America and the Caribbean—comprises roughly 22% of the world’s forest area and has more growing stock than any other region. However, more than 246,000 square miles of forestland were lost between 1990 and 2005, and the deforestation rate increased between 2000 and 2005 relative to the 1990s. Most was converted into export-oriented farms, biofuel plantations and livestock ranches. Forestry sector output accounted for 1.9% of Latin American GDP, the highest percentage of any region. The region’s forest industries are heavily export-oriented, and have been hurt by the global economic downturn and the appreciation of most currencies against the U.S. dollar. Outlook More forests in Latin America will be cleared for food, livestock and biofuel production—much of it for export to Asia—and some large tracts will be set apart for preservation. Latin America had just 5% of the world’s forest plantation area in 2006, but large, fast-growing plantations have since been established that will increase that .gure. Nonetheless, FAO predicts that plantation growth won’t offset losses in natural forests. Plantation-grown lumber will become more prevalent in the supply chain than lumber from natural forests. Well-Positioned The FAO report concluded that the decline in wood products demand induced by the global .nancial crisis is unlikely to be reversed “in the foreseeable future.” However, the report demonstrated that forest management practices in North America superbly balance sustainability with productivity. Therefore, North American producers should be well positioned to capitalize when global wood products demand does rebound |
||
|
Published in the April 10, 2009 issue of the Hardwood Review Weekly
Visit the Hardwood Review website at www.hardwoodreview.com |
||